A new report from the US-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) says Russia’s breaches of NATO members’ airspace has exposed weak air defences. Romania, Poland, Latvia and Moldova have all reported what they say are Russian-operated drones in their airspace. Some have crashed on land and been identified.
The CEPA article by By Arnis Cimermanis and Gordon B. “Skip” Davis, Jr. says such airspace incursions have so far been attributed to malfunctions or accidents, but there is potential for Russia to exploit this situation.
“A unifying feature of the incidents so far has been the difficulty in identifying and tracking them before mobilising air defences to destroy drones or missiles crossing into NATO territory,” the article states. “There is poor detection of low- and slow-flying objects, a crucial capability needed to counter Shahed-type attack drones.”
The authors say NATO must learn lessons from Ukraine’s use of a layered and multispectral network of sensors and that “all aspects of surveillance and response have to work together and in sequence to defend against such threats”.
Citing difficulties with the region’s air defence, the CEPA article notes, as an example, that the Baltic states do not possess medium-range air defense (MRAD) systems and aren’t expected to have them until 2026.
“Other allies have bolstered their capabilities in the region, but not enough to fully protect NATO skies. In addition to fielding more air defense systems, the alliance needs to achieve greater integration and interoperability and incorporate lower-tier counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS).” the authors say. “Additional air and missile defence capabilities, such as sensors for surveillance, detection, and tracking, must be coupled with integrated regional/theater-wide C2 and targeting networks.”
The authors conclude that US support for allies “by stationing more capabilities in the region and pushing NATO members to invest in cost-effective C-UAS and MRAD capabilities, would deter Russia from exploiting such incidents”.
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Image: In September, 450 participants from 22 countries, including Ukraine for the first time, gathered in the Netherlands for the fourth edition of NATO’s Counter Unmanned Aircraft System Technical Interoperability Exercise. (NATO photo)
